Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

This is about making smart decisions when, inevitably, you don’t have all the facts. Key learnings for me

Don’t talk about the past - focus on better outcome in the future

Decisions 10 hours, 10 days, 10 years - think in these timelines

Recognize Tilt - not capable of making good decisions - too emotional

Calm down!!!!

• There are only two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck. We can't control our luck, but we can control the quality of our decisions.

• A good decision is not one that has a good outcome. A good decision is one that is made based on the best available information and that takes into account all of the possible risks and rewards.

• We are all susceptible to cognitive biases, which are mental shortcuts that can lead us to make bad decisions. It's important to be aware of our biases and to take steps to mitigate them.

• We can improve our decision-making skills by thinking in bets. This means understanding the probabilities of different outcomes and making decisions based on expected value.

• It's important to be open to feedback and to learn from our mistakes. The more we learn, the better our decisions will become in the future.